Unemployment: Last Week’s 460,000 Doesn’t Include Easter Holiday Stats
By Phillip Williams on April 10, 2010, 10:16 am Posted in Economy NewsFirst time unemployment claim numbers were higher than expected last week. 460,000 people filed the initial claim for the first time. This number is higher than analysts expected, but it continues the current trend of unemployment claims being higher than expected. There is one factor that the current figures did not account for. These numbers were collected over the Easter Holiday.
Numbers May Not be As Bad As It Seems
A number of employers lay off their work force over Easter, Christmas and Thanksgiving. The majority of these workers are in factory jobs and are eligible to collect unemployment. First time claims may fall when these workers go back to work after the Easter break is over.
Despite reassurances from members of the Obama administration that the economy is recovering, consumer confidence has not risen sharply. The credit crunch prevents small business owners from getting loans, and new jobs have not yet replaced the ones that have been lost since the start of the economic downturn. Easter is one of the more difficult holidays for economists to make adjustments for because it occurs on different days each year.
Other Factors in Economic Recovery
California closed many of its state offices on March 31 of this year, several days before Easter. The inability to file additional unemployment claims may have further lowered the numbers. While the initial jobless claims is used to track economic progress, the figures do not include people who have used up their unemployment benefits and have not yet found another job. The number of people claiming continuing benefits fell to 4.55 million people. The job creation figures, despite the multiple economic stimulus passages passed by congress lag far behind the number of jobs that have been lost. Many of the jobs created in 2010 are temporary jobs provided by the United States Census.
Related posts:
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- Unemployment Rate Much Higher Than Reported By The Government
- Unemployment Extension: Tier 5 & 99ers Debate Likely To Heat Up Soon
- Recovering Of Job Market Could Take Years
- Unemployment Extension: Slow Paying States Adding To The Stress
The more stable moving average measure of first times claim continues on it’s downward trend. That is the better indicator.
The most obvious mis-information in this post is the implecation that a high percentage of new temporaty jobs were from the Census. There are quite a few 40,000 in March but overall compared to the number of new jobs (not new net) it is a fairly small percentage. So that boost will be missed but the implication that there is not an overall upturn in the economy is false. The clearly upturning economy is starting to produce the need for more workers. Just like it always has and like any recovery since the dawn of time.
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