The True Long Term Cost Of The Obama Healthcare Plan Fiasco

By Jeffrey Paulsen on March 8, 2010, 6:00 am Posted in Economy News

As the current spasm of heath care solutions float in and out of Washington, the public has been left wondering what the true long term cost of the plan will include. The official cost quoted by most administration officials is $950 billion over 10 years, with the end result being deficit neutral or perhaps even reducing the deficit slightly. Critics are quick to point out that while the plan runs for 10 years, actual tax receipts targeted toward funding the plan are stretched out longer, with the actual 10 year expenditures starting years after the receipts begin flowing into the government coffers.

But What Happens Afterward

The bigger question is what happens after the initial plan expires. What happens 30 or 40 years out? As the old saying goes “There’s nothing more permanent than a temporary government program.” Perhaps the one best parallel to the long term outlook for health care can be seen in Social Security. Social Security has long been the so-called “third rail” in American politics and 60 years into the program critics are fast to point out that its demise is almost certain unless drastic measures are taken.

 

As the American population continues to increase it remains to be seen how the government can continue to afford massive entitlement programs without drastically cutting benefits or imposing Draconian taxation measures. At the current rate of growth, the US population will increase from 310 to 439 million by 2050. Under the current projected bill, all will be covered under some form of health insurance, an increase of nearly 130 million on the health care rolls. The current bill is intended to cover roughly 38 million currently without health care and cost $950 billion over 10 years. It remains to be seen that in 2050 if the U.S. government can fulfill the promises it is making now.

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